AL92L Guessing Game

Disturbance AL92L continues to track towards the North East Caribbean including Nevis. The latest forecast posted by the US National Hurricane Center has decreased the probability of tropical cyclone formation by 10%. This conclusion is probably due to the lack of development overnight.

It continues to promise some wet and windy weather. Problem being how much? If the centre passes to the north then winds will be litter. If it passes to the south then the winds will be stronger. We wait to see what nature has for us.

Latest forecast

"Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands has changed little in organization since this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat more favorable for development during the next few days and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during that time frame. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and it could bring heavy rain to portions of the Leeward Islands by late Wednesday, regardless of development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of this system."

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

5 day Forecast.