Tuesday 28 July 2020

Atlantic Hurricane Season 2020 - Potential Tropical Depression 9

With weather disturbance AL92 now being classified as a Potential Tropical Depression 9  by the US National Hurricane Hurricane Center (NHC) at 11 am today things are getting busy.

The NHC are forecasting it to be Tropical Storm Isaias (ees-ah-EE-as) within the next 24 hours, it will become the earliest storm to begin with an "I" on record. The previous record was set by what became Hurricane Irene on on 7th August 2005. The 2005 season was the busiest Atlantic hurricane season to date. This would continue the record-breaking pace of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Hurricane Hanna broke the record for earliest storm with an "H" name by 11 days.



NHC Outlook 11 am

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 53.7 West. The system is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion  should continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. 

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development and a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) primarily to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


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Tropical Storm Isaias at 11 pm

...Disturbance becomes Tropical Storm Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs)... Having slowed down in its forward motion it has finally had time ...