Tropical Waves and AL92L

Today Monday is another passing tropical wave day. It started fine with some cloud and hazy sunshine, but the cloud has thickened and there have been some light showers. Looking to the east Guadeloupe radar indicates a band of showers will probably effect us this afternoon. As always, predicting is difficult as we are a small island in a big sea.

Monday morning view

A shower falling around Nevis Peak

Meanwhile further to the east out in the Atlantic weather disturbance AL92L continues on its track towards us. The strength of this disturbance regarding wind speeds and rainfall have proven difficult to forecast. It became a little disorganised overnight so slowed down the predicted development. Whether this is an "active" tropical wave or becomes a Tropical Storm it will mean wind and rain. The problem is how much?

as always plan for the worst and hope for the best.

The "alert" issued by Antigua Met Services earlier this morning:

The latest 08:00 hours forecast from the US National Hurricane Center:

"Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands has become a little less organized since last night. However, environmental conditions are still expected to become more favorable for development in a day or two and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form within the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and could begin to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday or Wednesday night. Interests on those islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system."

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.