For Nevis Friday evening dark clouds came in from the East and we had some showers overnight. This gave us just over a tenth of an inch in rain up in the Nevis Peak foothills.
Meanwhile our eyes now turn to the East as we look at another disturbance AL92L that looks as if it will form into the next Tropical Cyclone. As of Saturday evening this has been estimated by the US National Hurricane Center to have a 50% chance of forming a cyclone within 48 hours and n 80% chance within 5 days. The forecast track has consistently pointed towards the Leeward Islands. It is a fair way out so things can change, but as they say prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
NHC Forecast at 8 pm
"A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic."
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
A further developing disturbance may follow from West Africa ready to cross the Atlantic.
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