Tropical Storm Isaias at 11 pm

...Disturbance becomes Tropical Storm Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs)...

Having slowed down in its forward motion it has finally had time to consolidate a central circulation.

Here in Nevis we are still experiencing rain bands passing over us. A recent shower band produced some thunder and lightning. The lightning could be seen to the south west/west of the island.

Passed Us By

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 has passed us by here on Nevis. Never made it to a cyclone in our area as it did not manage to organise a defined circulation. It still had a lot of rain associated with it and fortunately for us the wind field was not to powerful or lasted that long. 

18:00 hours it is still murky and a squally shower has just stated!.

The Latest 5 day Forecast Track From the US National Hurricane Center.

Figures outlining wind strength and rainfall at my location on Nevis.

	High	Low	Average
Wind Speed	20.0 mph	1.0 mph	9.4 mph
Wind Gust	34.0 mph	--	19.7 mph
Wind Direction	--	--	ENE

After the two and a half our rain event in the afternoon (13:00 to 15:30 hours), the total rainfall at my location was measured at 1.90 inches.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS AT 5 pm. 29th July 2020.

--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Anguilla
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

Rain Event

After the initial wind and rain things calmed down until 13:00 hours. We then had rain for about 2 and a half hours. Thankfully this was not accompanied by strong or gusting winds.

The clump of rain weather can be seem on the following Guadeloupe/Martinique Rain Radar picture. St. Kitts and Nevis are circled in red.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Arrives

Squally showers to start the morning off with and some strong gusts of wind. Things are starting to brighten up at about 10:30 hours and the wind reducing in intensity. We still have some more showers around in the area so I expect some squally conditions if they pass our way.

Attached some pictures:

1. A casualty. Had a branch come down on a Cedar Tree.

2. The view first thing this morning. Low cloud and showers. In the twilight zone.

3. Guadeloupe radar at about 09:25 hours, showing St Kitts and Nevis (marked in red) in-between two areas of showers. The one to the east moving towards us.

Wind measurements to give an indication of what we had up in the Nevis Peak foothills so far.

	High	Low	Average
Wind Speed	20.0 mph	4.0 mph	12.3 mph
Wind Gust	34.0 mph	--	24.2 mph
Wind Direction	--	--	ENE

So far at my location the rain measure is 0.45 inches.

Flash Flood Watch including Nevis

FLASH FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT

TAPA
BULLETIN
FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
9:30 PM ECT TUE JUL 28 2020

...Flash Flood Watch in Effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Nevis and Anguilla...

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service has issued a flash flood watch for flash-flood prone areas of the above-mentioned islands. The flash flood threat level is moderate and there is the potential for significant impacts in the watch area. To be safe, implement you flood plan.

Timing: Wednesday.

Synopsis: Heavy showers associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are expected to move across the area. Rainfall rates of 50 mm (2 in) per hour or more will produce minor flooding and may produce moderate or worse flash flooding. One to three inches of rain is possible on Wednesday, with isolated higher totals. 

Potential Impacts: Localised disruption to transportation; interruption of school hours; localised population displacement; erosion; environmental degradation; localised damage to dams, embankment, irrigation and drainage facilities; high sediments transport into reservoir; localised disruption to communication; localised contamination of potable water; localised loss of livestock; financial losses; injuries; temporary stoppage of health services and damage to infrastructure.

Precautionary/preparedness actions: A flash flood watch means that flooding is possible but not imminent in the watch area. Residents in these areas should make preparations to protect life, property and livelihood against flooding and be prepared to move to higher ground, if heavy rains develop.

Stay tuned to updates coming out of the ABMS Met Office via antiguamet.com

FORECASTER
DALE DESTIN

Satellite and Radar Images

Satellite picture showing cloud formation of Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. St. Kitts and Nevis are circled in red. Time at 11:30 pm 28th July 2020.

Radar on Guadeloupe and Martinique outlining distribution of rain across the area. The lighter the display the heavier the rain. St. Kitts and Nevis are circled in red. Time at 11:30 pm 28th July 2020.

Weather Station Summery, 28th July 2020

Pond Hill, Nevis

	High	Low	Average
Temperature	84.1 F	76.4 F	80.0 F
Dew Point	76.0 F	72.0 F	73.6 F
Humidity	90 %	73 %	82 %
Precipitation	0.02 in	--	--

	High	Low	Average
Wind Speed	19.0 mph	1.0 mph	9.5 mph
Wind Gust	29.0 mph	--	20.2 mph
Wind Direction	--	--	East
Pressure	30.06 in	29.98 in	--

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 - 11 pm Key Message

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 59.4 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general  motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional

development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form on Wednesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra* U.S. Virgin Islands* British Virgin Islands* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla* Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy* Saba and St. Eustatius* St. Maarten* Dominica* Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...* Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward toPunta Caucedo* Turks and Caicos Islands